One of the guiding principles for designing AI-based weather forecasting systems is to embed physical constraints as inductive priors in the neural network architecture. A popular prior is locality, where the atmospheric data is processed with local neural interactions, like 3D convolutions or 3D local attention windows as in Pangu-Weather. On the other hand, some works have shown great success in weather forecasting without this locality principle, at the cost of a much higher parameter count. In this paper, we show that the 3D local processing in Pangu-Weather is computationally sub-optimal. We design ArchesWeather, a transformer model that combines 2D attention with a column-wise attention-based feature interaction module, and demonstrate that this design improves forecasting skill. ArchesWeather is trained at 1.5\u00b0 resolution and 24h lead time, with a training budget of a few GPU-days and a lower inference cost than competing methods. An ensemble of two of our best models shows competitive RMSE scores with the IFS HRES and outperforms the 1.4\u00b0 50-members NeuralGCM ensemble for one day ahead forecasting. Code and models will be made publicly available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
One of the guiding principles for designing AI-based weather forecasting systems is to embed physical constraints as inductive priors in the neural network architecture. A popular prior is locality, where the atmospheric data is processed with local neural interactions, like 3D convolutions or 3D local attention windows as in Pangu-Weather. On the other hand, some […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":351,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[303,3],"tags":[1673,1801,20,2066,1106],"class_list":["post-29223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earth-and-space-sciences","category-paper","tag-deep-learning","tag-earth-and-space-sciences","tag-nvidia","tag-nvidia-a100","tag-weather-prediction"],"views":2639,"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hgpu.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29223","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hgpu.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hgpu.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hgpu.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/351"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hgpu.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29223"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hgpu.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29223\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hgpu.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29223"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hgpu.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29223"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hgpu.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29223"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}